1965-2015年新疆夏季不同等级降水的空间分布特征   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

杜雅菡  周顺武  亨巴提  李耀辉  王铁  宋瑶 《冰川冻土》2018,40(6):1231-1241

根据新疆51个台站1965-2015年夏季逐日降水资料,将降水划分为小雨、中雨及大雨3个等级,分析了新疆近51 a夏季不同等级降水量、降水日数及降水强度的空间分布特征,并讨论了各等级降水日、降水量及降水强度与总降水量的空间相似程度以及各等级降水对夏季总降水的贡献。结果表明：新疆降水主要集中在夏季,并以小雨为主。以天山山脉为界,南北两疆降水空间分布存在明显差异,北疆夏季降水量（日）占年降水量（日）的36%~45%（36%~39%）,南疆夏季降水量（日）占年降水量（日）的51%~63%（48%~60%）;新疆夏季不同等级降水量、降水日及降水强度的空间分布不均匀。新疆夏季总降水量与各等级降水量的空间相似系数最为密切,与各等级降水强度的空间相似系数相对较小;新疆夏季小雨贡献率最大,中雨其次,大雨最小,夏季降水量和降水日的变化主要受小雨的影响。  相似文献   

斑岩型钼矿床研究进展与问题   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

曹冲  申萍 《地质论评》2018,64(2):477-497

本文在简要介绍全球重要成矿带斑岩型钼矿床品位、储量、时空分布以及构造背景的基础上,着重归纳了斑岩型钼矿床中Mo在岩浆—热液演化过程中的地球化学行为特征以及Mo在成矿流体中的迁移与沉淀机制两个方面的研究进展。取得了以下认识:形成斑岩型钼矿床成矿岩浆氧逸度(f_(O2))变化范围较大,但一般大于铁橄榄石—磁铁矿—石英(FMQ)缓冲体系。斑岩钼矿床形成的主要受岩浆房的大小,大体积的岩浆流体能否高效聚集到浅部岩株或岩脉,岩浆中的挥发分(例如F)含量等因素的控制,但与成矿花岗岩和出溶流体中Mo的含量高低无直接关系。成矿流体的氧逸度与p H降低对辉钼矿沉淀具有关键作用。除此之外,温度与盐度降低对辉钼矿沉淀也有重要作用。流体的多阶段沸腾可能对提高Mo品位具有重要意义。此外,应加强岩浆结晶分异过程、岩浆热液转化过程Mo的地球化学行为研究。  相似文献   

广西桂林凉风洞秋冬季滴水和沉积物氧同位素对极端降水的记录研究     

吴夏  潘谋成  曹建华  朱晓燕  张美良 《地球学报》2018,39(1):53-61

近年来,全球环境变化导致的极端气候事件的发生频率剧增,引起了国内外学者的广泛关注。由于器测记录时间较短,因此需要通过精确连续记录古气候变化的石笋来解译极端气候事件的规律。本文针对桂林凉风洞2015年9月至2016年1月的大气降水、洞穴滴水和现代沉积物的氧同位素组成进行了高分辨率的监测。监测结果揭示了由于秋冬水汽源的改变,导致桂林地区大气降水δD、δ~(18)O同位素值显示逐渐偏正的季节性变化,并且建立了该区域大气降水线为:δD=8.8δ~(18)O+16.38。由于大气降水作为凉风洞水源补给唯一来源,使得洞穴滴水的δ~(18)O继承大气降水的δ~(18)O所蕴含的环境信息,进而记录在洞穴现代沉积物中。但是受到洞穴顶部岩溶表层带的平滑或者均一化的作用,使得洞穴滴水的δ~(18)O同位素值要偏正于大气降水的δ~(18)O同位素值。在极端降水信号输入岩溶表层带后由于存在不同的水文地球化学过程,从而导致洞穴沉积物对其极端降水事件的响应时间存在不同,并且在δ~(18)O同位素值也存在明显差异。因此,系统监测洞穴滴水、沉积物δ~(18)O同位素对外界环境信息的响应过程,能为量化或精确解译石笋δ~(18)O同位素记录所指代的古气候环境信息提供基础。  相似文献   

遥感及再分析降水产品在缺资料干旱内陆盆地的适用性评估     

吕爱锋  亓珊珊 《地球信息科学学报》2022,24(9):1817-1834

山区降水较集中,但降水测站多位于山谷或人口密集区,代表性差。遥感和再分析降水产品能提供时空分布连续的数据,不受地形条件限制。柴达木盆地中心属干旱荒漠区,水是制约该区开发的首要条件,其四周属高寒山区,降水相对较多,但降水监测十分薄弱。为获取该区相对精确的降水时空分布信息,本文评估了4套高分辨率降水产品（CMADS、TRMM、GPM和MSWEP）的适用性。首先基于地面站点数据评估它们在不同时空尺度上的精度,并分析它们在柴达木盆地的空间分布和年内分配特征。然后,以盆地东南隅的无测站山区香日德河流域为研究区,利用降水产品驱动SWAT模型来评估它们的分布式水文模拟适用性。结果表明：① MSWEP在年、月尺度上与站点降水的吻合程度最高（R ≥ 0.79,PBIAS = 0.5%）,其次是GPM和TRMM,CMADS精度最低（R ≥ 0.64,PBIAS = 5.8%）;② 从降水精度与站点高程的关系来看,降水产品在相对低海拔区容易高估站点降水,而在相对高海拔区常低估实际降水;③ 在香日德河流域,MSWEP（NSE = 0.64）在基准期（2009—2012年）的径流模拟表现明显好于其它降水产品（NSE = 0.36~0.59）,变化期（2013—2016年）表现最好的是CMADS（NSE = 0.75,其余产品NSE = 0.53~0.68）。本研究可为缺资料干旱山区获取精确的降水时空信息和后续水资源的科学管理与规划提供重要支撑。  相似文献   

Satellite Observations of Reflectivity Maxima above the Freezing Level Induced by Terrain     

Aoqi ZHANG  Weibiao LI  Shumin CHEN  Yilun CHEN  Yunfei FU 《大气科学进展》2021,38(4):627-640

Previous studies have recognized reflectivity maxima above the freezing level(RMAF) within stratiform precipitation over mountain slopes, however, quantitative studies are limited due to the lack of adequate identification criteria. Here, we establish an identification method for RMAF precipitation and apply it to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM) Precipitation Radar(PR) observations. Using the TRMM 2A25 product from 1998 to 2013, we show that the RMAF structure in reflectivity profiles can be effectively identified. RMAF exists not only in stratiform precipitation but also in convective precipitation. RMAF frequency is positively correlated with elevation, which is thought to be caused by enhanced updrafts in the middle layers of stratiform precipitation, or in the low to middle layers of convective precipitation over mountains. The average RMAF heights in stratiform and convective precipitation were 1.35 and 2.01 km above the freezing level, respectively, which is lower than previous results. In addition, our results indicate that the RMAF structure increased the echo top height and enhanced precipitation processes above the RMAF height, but it suppressed the downward propagation of ice particles and the near-surface rain rate. Future studies of orographic precipitation should take into account the impact of the RMAF structure and its relevant dynamic triggers.  相似文献   

Impacts of Irrigation and Vegetation Growth on Summer Rainfall in the Taklimakan Desert     

Dongze XU  Yanluan LIN 《大气科学进展》2021,38(11):1863-1872

In recent decades, a greening tendency due to increased vegetation has been noted around the Taklimakan Desert(TD), but the impact of such a change on the local hydrological cycle remains uncertain. Here, we investigate the response of the local hydrological cycle and atmospheric circulation to a green TD in summer using a pair of global climate model(Community Earth System Model version 1.2.1) simulations. With enough irrigation to support vegetation growth in the TD, the modeling suggests first, that significant increases in local precipitation are attributed to enhanced local recycling of water, and second, that there is a corresponding decrease of local surface temperatures. On the other hand, irrigation and vegetation growth in this low-lying desert have negligible impacts on the large-scale circulation and thus the moisture convergence for enhanced precipitation. It is also found that the green TD can only be sustained by a large amount of irrigation water supply since only about one-third of the deployed water can be "recycled " locally. Considering this,devising a way to encapsulate the irrigated water within the desert to ensure more efficient water recycling is key for maintaining a sustainable, greening TD.  相似文献   

A CRPS-Based Spatial Technique for the Verification of Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts     

赵滨  张博  李子良 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2021,27(1):24-33

Traditional precipitation skill scores are affected by the well-known“double penalty”problem caused by the slight spatial or temporal mismatches between forecasts and observations. The fuzzy (neighborhood) method has been proposed for deterministic simulations and shown some ability to solve this problem. The increasing resolution of ensemble forecasts of precipitation means that they now have similar problems as deterministic forecasts. We developed an ensemble precipitation verification skill score, i.e., the Spatial Continuous Ranked Probability Score (SCRPS), and used it to extend spatial verification from deterministic into ensemble forecasts. The SCRPS is a spatial technique based on the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) and the fuzzy method. A fast binomial random variation generator was used to obtain random indexes based on the climatological mean observed frequency, which were then used in the reference score to calculate the skill score of the SCRPS. The verification results obtained using daily forecast products from the ECMWF ensemble forecasts and quantitative precipitation estimation products from the OPERA datasets during June-August 2018 shows that the spatial score is not affected by the number of ensemble forecast members and that a consistent assessment can be obtained. The score can reflect the performance of ensemble forecasts in modeling precipitation and thus can be widely used.  相似文献   

Intercomparison of CRA-Interim Precipitation Products with ERA5 and JRA-55     

叶梦姝  姚秀萍  张涛  许小峰  王式功 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2021,27(2):136-147

By using the hourly data from surface meteorological stations in China, the 3-hour precipitation data from CRA-Interim (Chinese Reanalysis-Interim), ERA5 (ECMWF Reanalysis 5) and JRA-55 (Japanese Reanalysis-55) are compared, both on the spatial-temporal distributions and on bias with observation precipitation in China. The results show that: (1) The three sets of reanalysis datasets can all reflect the basic spatial distribution characteristics of annual average precipitation in China. The simulation of topographic forced precipitation in complex terrain by CRA-interim is more detailed, while CRA-interim has larger negative bias in central and East China, and larger positive bias in southwest China. (2) In terms of seasonal precipitation, the three sets of reanalysis datasets overestimate the precipitation in the heavy rainfall zone of spring and summer, especially in southwest China. CRA interim’s location of the rain belt in the First Rainy Season in South China is west by south, the summer precipitation has positive bias in southwest and South China. (3) All of the reanalysis datasets can basically reflect the distribution difference of inter-annual variation of drought and flood, but the overall the CRA-Interim generally shows negative bias, while the ERA5 and JRA-55 exhibit positive bias. (4) For the diurnal variation of precipitation in summer, all the reanalysis datasets perform better in simulating the daytime precipitation than in the night, and bias of CRA-interim is less in southeast and northeast than elsewhere. (5) ERA5 generally performs the best on the evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecast, the JRA-55 is the next, followed by the CRA-Interim. CRA-Interim has higher missing rate and lower threat score for heavy rains; however, at the level of downpour, the CRA-Interim performs slightly better.  相似文献   

基于卷积神经网络的逐时降水预报订正方法研究     

陈锦鹏  冯业荣  蒙伟光  文秋实  潘宁  戴光丰 《气象》2021,(1):60-70

应用2017—2018年5—9月福建省观测资料对华南区域中尺度模式(GTRAMS-3 km-RUC)预报进行站点检验,建立和训练基于卷积神经网络的逐时降水分级订正模型,并与频率匹配法进行2017—2018年测试集的对比试验和2019年数据集的模拟业务检验,探讨了试验过程中遇到的样本不均衡、特征变量选取以及模型过拟合问题。结果表明:模式对于15 mm·h-1以上降水的预报能力弱,各订正方法对原始预报均有不同程度的改进作用。从评估指标来看,基于卷积神经网络的订正方法比频率匹配法表现出优势,其中相关系数判别方案下的网络模型对强降水预报的订正效果显著优于其他方法;在输入特征变量选取方面,应用主成分分析方案的模型训练收敛速度比相关系数判别方案更快,最佳训练期有所提前,但也更早进入严重的过拟合状态,而相关系数判别方案能够使网络模型的训练拥有更长的提升期以达到更具“潜力”的状态;基于卷积神经网络的订正方法对减少分类降水预报的漏报率、晴雨和弱降水预报的空报率具有显著作用,其优化程度明显超过频率匹配法。  相似文献   

2020年11月大气环流和天气分析     

南洋  饶晓琴  尤媛  关良 《气象》2021,(2):253-260

2020年11月大气环流的主要特征为:北半球极涡呈偶极分布,环流呈三波型,东亚大槽偏弱,南支槽偏弱,西太平洋副热带高压偏西偏强。全国平均降水量为16.9 mm,比常年同期(19.0 mm)偏少11%,月内17—19日出现了一次强雨雪天气过程,湖北恩施建始县和辽宁丹东出现大暴雨,黑龙江牡丹江、鸡西和七台河、内蒙古通辽和赤峰等地出现大暴雪或特大暴雪。全国平均气温为3.9℃,比常年同期(2.9℃)偏高1℃,11月共出现4次冷空气过程,其中1次为全国强冷空气过程(18—22日)。10—17日,大气扩散条件较为不利,华北中南部、黄淮西部、汾渭平原等地发生一次雾-霾天气过程。  相似文献